Staying races - Trainers (3)

Profiting from the Slow Boats (3)

The last 2 months I have looked at the general way I look at staying races & also the breeding angle. However, the main angle, other than pure form, that I like to look at is trainers. Some trainers like the sprinters such as Dandy Nicholls , some do well with fillies such as Henry Cecil & some do well with the stayers. Whether that’s because of the stock they pick up, the way they train them or the way they campaign them is immaterial as long as you know which is which. I always look for the last of those 3 factors.

Below is the top trainers for all races run over 13f or more in the last 10 years ( minimum 30 runs)

Sir Mark Prescott is no surprise but I’m guessing not many would have Marcus Tregonning at the top of the tree. This table includes all races & I am more interested in a certain type of race. Namely 3yo+ staying handicaps , as there is a very definite pattern to these races.

Below is the same league narrowed down to 13f+ 3yo+ handicap races (min 20 races)

Again we have the same 2 but the key table (table 3) for me is when you only look at 3 yr olds in the same races..

Again the top 2, but we start to see some of the cannier trainers who gear the races to get the most out of the favourable conditions. Its also worth noting how profitable the top 6 are, not only winning, but winning at the right odds.

The 3 trainers I want to concentrate on over the next couple of months are Tregoning & Prescott for the obvious reasons, but also for Mark Johnstone due to the way he uses the WFA allowances to such effect in the July/Aug months.

The last table (4) shows the same as below but just for July & Aug when the 3 yr olds get such a massive allowance.

For example in early July 3 yr olds get 19 lb’s in 2 mile races

Table 4

Looking at these key trainers for 3yo+ staying handicaps, the following stats shine through & may well pay to follow blindly

Marcus Tregoning

• Has a 36% strike rate in staying distances compared to only 10.3% in sprints
• Aug & Sept combined give a 47.2% strike rate
• Class droppers are 5 from 7
• Those stepping up in distance are 10 from 25 (40%)
• Those running after a month or more break win over 50% of the time

Sir Mark Prescott

• 9 from 19 at Scottish courses ( all bar 4 were placed)
• If they’re not fancied then they rarely win – only 1 win from 23 over 9/1
• 3 yr olds win 37.7% & 6 from 10 place
• Those running under a 6 lb penalty have a 47.6% strike rate

Mark Johnston

• 3  yr olds have a 24.4% SR compared to a general 16.6%
• Class droppers have double the strike rate of those running at same class
• Very little difference on whether last run was 1^st,2^nd,3^rd or 4^th. Mostlv trainers have much better rates for last time out winners

For those 3 yr olds in open races:-

• July has a 36% trike rate & a ROI of 90%
• 57% SR at Hamilton & a ROI of 370%
• Only 8.6% SR in class 1&2 races
• 72% ROI & 26.3% SR when upped in distance
• No wins when last race a maiden!

So as you can see, certain trainers concentrate on these races & over the next month or so then keep a keen eye on the 4 trainers in table 4 plus of course the trainer who tops the overall table – Marcus Tregoning