October Update

October Update


October saw the 8th month out of 8 in profit & the 9th month in row in total

We had 53 bets & 137 points staked. Average stake was 2.58pts & the average price was just over 10/1

Profit of 71.5 pts was a ROI of 52.2%

The smallest monthly profit was in May at 25.1 pts & a ROI of 25.9%
The best was August with a profit of 160.98 pts & a ROI of 105.2%

YTD there have been 427 bets at an average stake of 2.23pts & an average price of 11.5/1

Those 427 bets made a profit of 459.34 pts at a ROI of 48.2%

Even at betfair SP the ROI is 42.0%!

November is my last month of tipping , but I will be returning for the 2013 flat season & also including full coverage of both Cheltenham & Aintree.


Membership is now closed for 2012 but if you're interested in next year, just drop me a brief mail & I'll make sure I include you in any updates in 2013

Best wishes, JC.

Odds & Sods

As you may know I have run a service for almost 5 years now & one of the repeated dialogues I have with members is whether EW or win only is best & if you go EW, then when? Often I am with people who are used to dealing with tips around the 3/1 mark or even lower. My average bet over those 5 years is just over 10/1 & my long distance bets, which I specialize in, average 8/1. So I thought I’d compare EW v Win only.

Some people swear blind that win only is the way forward, but others prefer the safety net of EW betting. Who if any are right? I have looked at my own bets to find out how my own personal circumstances would have changed if I had gone down 1 path or another

When talking about my own bets, I have taken a random 2,000 bets, ignoring multiples & have ignored strength of recommended bet (usually ranges up to 5 pts). If it’s ew then its 1pt ew, if its win then 2pts win.

Backing win only (2pts win), over these 2,000 bets (average 9/1) would have produced a profit of 376pts. Taking the extreme example of betting all at EW (1pt ew) then this profit would have been only 112 points. This should be no surprise as any time a 5/2 shot wins a race with 1/5^th the odds , instead of winning 5pts, you win 2.5 pts for the win part & 0.5pts for the place, so reducing profit by 2 points. If it placed you would have lost 2 pts on the win bet & 0.5 pts on the EW bet. A gain of only 1.5 pts.

What I then experimented with was cut-off points. Many go for the 5/1 & upwards so that was my first port of call.

Betting Ew when its over 5/1 would have returned 193 points. An improvement but still way back on the win only method.

Now, what if I used my average odds for these 2000 bets which was just over 9/1?

Betting EW at 9/1 or higher would have produced a profit of  392pts.

An improvement of 16 points on win only. In fact moving up a point at a time increases the profit on the EW betting each & every time, though 9/1 is the first time this would have bettered the win only betting. Is it a coincidence that this trigger point is my average bet? Probably, but it’s curious that only 2 other price points beat win only. 12/1 & upwards & 16/1 & upwards. The latter is the only price point that takes it over the 400 point mark.

I can only do the above analysis because I record all my bets but it does give food for thought, especially if I offer EW at lower than 9/1. Don’t forget that it also dissipates the big wins such as Bulwark which returned 132 points if win only but only 82.50 at EW .

The above assumes EW over 9/1 is the best way, but this ignores the nuances of EW betting. There can be great worth in betting in large field handicaps which offer ¼ the odds for 4 places

Taking an extreme example of a 16 runner field with all horses starting at 15/1.

This would give a 100% book , meaning if you placed a £1 on each horse to win you would break even.

If you placed a place bet on each runner at 15/4, then you would win on 4 bets & lose on 12, winning 3 pts. This may be why we see last minute non-runners in 16 strong handicap races!!

The above assumes that there is a 100% book, which doesn’t happen & also assuming you can pick which horses will place! It does show that an EW bet is very different depending on circumstances. Don’t forget that getting 4 placed , means only 1 wins so you lose on 3 of your winning bets , but it still shows the importance of seeing the place part as a key part of your bet.

The same bet in a 16 runner maiden race paying 1/5^th the odds would  have you losing 4 pts on the place part as the odds go down to 3/1 & you only get 3 places.

What have I learnt?

Well on a generic angle, its best to look at win only at under 9/1 & to pick my EW races but each person is different. One stat I haven’t added until now is what I actually did. ie. when I stated win only then 2 pts win & when EW then 1ptew , again ignoring my usual stakings, then the profit was 485 pts. This was way in excess of any rules based EW betting & showed the benefit of assessing the race.

All methods & betting patterns are different to others & I would really encourage everyone to record their bets & assess which is best for you & I’ll guarantee your P&L will improve for it.

As an end stat, I have long thought that the longer the odds, the bigger the bet should be.

This takes bravery & depends on the type of bets you pick but using the following parameters :-

Under 5/2 – 1pt win or 0.5pt ew, up to 6/1 - 2 pts, up to 10/1 – 3pts, up to 16/1 – 4pts, over 16/1 then a scary 5pts win or 2.5 pts ew

Using the above – the profit jumps to 1,028 with less points staked!!

See www.tippinglegends.com for more detail & follow me on twitter @jcatskill

Many thanks to www.flatstats.co.uk for providing much of my data

Staying races - Trainers (3)

Profiting from the Slow Boats (3)

The last 2 months I have looked at the general way I look at staying races & also the breeding angle. However, the main angle, other than pure form, that I like to look at is trainers. Some trainers like the sprinters such as Dandy Nicholls , some do well with fillies such as Henry Cecil & some do well with the stayers. Whether that’s because of the stock they pick up, the way they train them or the way they campaign them is immaterial as long as you know which is which. I always look for the last of those 3 factors.

Below is the top trainers for all races run over 13f or more in the last 10 years ( minimum 30 runs)

Sir Mark Prescott is no surprise but I’m guessing not many would have Marcus Tregonning at the top of the tree. This table includes all races & I am more interested in a certain type of race. Namely 3yo+ staying handicaps , as there is a very definite pattern to these races.

Below is the same league narrowed down to 13f+ 3yo+ handicap races (min 20 races)

Again we have the same 2 but the key table (table 3) for me is when you only look at 3 yr olds in the same races..

Again the top 2, but we start to see some of the cannier trainers who gear the races to get the most out of the favourable conditions. Its also worth noting how profitable the top 6 are, not only winning, but winning at the right odds.

The 3 trainers I want to concentrate on over the next couple of months are Tregoning & Prescott for the obvious reasons, but also for Mark Johnstone due to the way he uses the WFA allowances to such effect in the July/Aug months.

The last table (4) shows the same as below but just for July & Aug when the 3 yr olds get such a massive allowance.

For example in early July 3 yr olds get 19 lb’s in 2 mile races

Table 4

Looking at these key trainers for 3yo+ staying handicaps, the following stats shine through & may well pay to follow blindly

Marcus Tregoning

• Has a 36% strike rate in staying distances compared to only 10.3% in sprints
• Aug & Sept combined give a 47.2% strike rate
• Class droppers are 5 from 7
• Those stepping up in distance are 10 from 25 (40%)
• Those running after a month or more break win over 50% of the time

Sir Mark Prescott

• 9 from 19 at Scottish courses ( all bar 4 were placed)
• If they’re not fancied then they rarely win – only 1 win from 23 over 9/1
• 3 yr olds win 37.7% & 6 from 10 place
• Those running under a 6 lb penalty have a 47.6% strike rate

Mark Johnston

• 3  yr olds have a 24.4% SR compared to a general 16.6%
• Class droppers have double the strike rate of those running at same class
• Very little difference on whether last run was 1^st,2^nd,3^rd or 4^th. Mostlv trainers have much better rates for last time out winners

For those 3 yr olds in open races:-

• July has a 36% trike rate & a ROI of 90%
• 57% SR at Hamilton & a ROI of 370%
• Only 8.6% SR in class 1&2 races
• 72% ROI & 26.3% SR when upped in distance
• No wins when last race a maiden!

So as you can see, certain trainers concentrate on these races & over the next month or so then keep a keen eye on the 4 trainers in table 4 plus of course the trainer who tops the overall table – Marcus Tregoning

Profiting from the Slow Boats (2)

Last month I tried to summarise why I feel concentrating on flat races of 13f & upwards is such a profitable area to concentrate on.

One of the key questions that is often heard, especially before the form kicks in post Royal Ascot, is “Will It Stay?”

You often hear this because often half the field at this time of year is trying the distance for the first time & we’re looking for clues as to whether it will stay. You will often see decent horses cruise up 3f out only to find little & be beaten by a seemingly inferior horse.

I mentioned looking for small clues such as its 2 yr old career. If its lightly raced it may well have been unsuited to the speed tests that many 2 yr olds are subjected too. Many of the longer 2 yr old races ( 8f +)come later in the year, so those truly stamina laden often only get 1 or 2 chances to run at 2. If your horse raced at a mile or more early in its career I see this as a good sign.

The other key thing you can look at is its breeding.

We don’t have to be bloodstock experts to take a decent guess whether a horse is bred for stamina. Writing this, we have a 2 mile Ripon race running tomorrow where a lightly raced 5 yr old, Shuubat is running at 2 miles for the 1^st time. Will it stay? I would say almost definitely. Unraced at 2 it started at 12f on its 3 yr old debut which immediately screams stamina to me. Raced 4 times at 3 its best speed rating was its only time at 14f & only time on soft – another huge indicator that staying is its game. What about its breeding?

His sire is Monsun, a German sire,  who has a distance rating of 12.1 which is very high for an average winning distance ( 10+ is often an indicator of stamina) I’ll come back to Monsun later but German sires often are bred more for stamina than their GB or US counterparts.

Its dam is by Unfuwain who has a rating of 10.1, so there is stamina on both sides of the family. So without it ever racing at the distance I would be very confident that 2 miles in the soft can only improve it. All you need to work out now is if its good enough!

Mentioning Monsun brings me to the sires that do well in these 13f+ races. Opposite are the top 30 such sires (minimum 25 runs) for the last 10 years races on turf ( all my other reports are 6 yrs but it’s better to get as big a sample as possible for sires

As you can see Monsun comes in at number 2 behind an old favourite of mine Bollin Eric ( if all else fails just back all stayers called Bollin something trained by the Easterbys when they go over a trip!)

What I also want to look at is whether the sire gets similar results at less. If it doesn’t then it helps us as they are often under estimated until stepped up in distance.

Taking Kalanisi as an example as its had over 100 runners in our target range

The following is the comparison by distance ( Long is defined as 12f+ in this)

As we can see, we should take note of any Kalanisi runner upped in distance

Other indicators that this sire is suited to stayers is its strike rate by age

As mentioned before, late maturing types often excel at further

This sire analysis can work the other way as well.

Below is the list of the worst  20 sires for 14f+ over the last 10 years

Red Ransom has had 57 runners running over 14f or more & none have won – if your horse is stepping up in distance & it’s by Red Ransom – you have been warned. Amazingly they weren’t all longshots, 25 of them started at 9/1 or lower!

It’s not a bad sire as its sprint strike rate is 9.8% it’s just one of those that you need to be wary of when going further than 12f

It won’t surprise you that over 2 of the stiffest courses – Carlisle & Pontefract, its won 1 race from 65! – This sire doesn’t breed many tough types.

You can obviously incorporate these tables into fairly robust systems but I mainly use them to gauge whether a horse will be suited to the step up in distance. Once they’ve had a few runs at a variety of distances then the form book will usually tell you whether they are going to stay or whether they’re just slow. 

Profiting from the Slow Boats- Article 1

Some of you may be familiar with the “Zulu Principle”. This was a phrase coined by Jim Slater to describe how good money could be made from specialising. His field of choice was stock markets but the theory is just as relevant in horse racing. His suggestion is that somebody could have a good knowledge of Africa, but if they had read up on South Africa, they could be even more knowledgeable, if they had read up on the Zulu tribe (as his wife did) they would be deemed an expert & if they had actually lived there then they would be a renowned expert in that field. THAT is why I have decided to specialise in long distance flat races. Expertise through specialism.

Nowadays there is a huge amount of racing & nobody can hope to be up to date with all the differing facets of the racing calendar. I chose my area because historically I have always done well in these races & as a result take more interest & increase my knowledge.

Many a horse racing enthusiast sees these races as full of slow boats who haven’t got the speed or perceived class to be of interest. Sprints, mile races & group races capture the imagination but this allows for anybody with an understanding of this poor relation to take advantage.

I will go on to delve into great detail on the effects of age, class, trainers, sires & fitness later in future articles but I thought I’d first try & give an overview of how I tackle these races & why stayers races suit my style of betting.

Generally when analyzing a race I try & match the horse with the conditions of the race. This method precludes the need to keep complicated lists of  horses to follow as the strength of the horse is only ever known when paired with the circumstances of the race. Using simplified logic, if a horse isn’t suited to the conditions then its more likely to tell over 2 miles than it is 5f. If you didn’t like running when the ground was muddy, would you prefer to do it over 100 yds or a mile? So when I’m looking at a horse that has its perfect conditions then 2 miles is likelier to bring out that advantage.

The 2^nd key aspect to these races is that there is  many an expert who dismiss them as unfashionable & therefore misunderstand the key factors.

2 differing examples are; Fame & Glory in the 2011 Gold Cup run over 20f. Fame & Glory was a proven group 1 horse who had shown distinct signs of needing much further than the 12f races it had been competing at. Unfortunate to run into Sea of Stars it was seen by many as an admission of failure to run it in the stayers division. This despite the huge pool of talent the Ballydoyle outfit could choose from. 5/2 was freely available on the day until a late deluge of money forced it down to 11/8. It duly won with ease. It was the longest price it had been for over 2 years despite the opposition being weaker ( Duncan was 2^nd fav). The impression that it was a retrograde step allowed the price to be too high.

The other side of the misunderstanding spectrum is many people that see a horse one paced at 10-12f think that all they need is a stronger test of stamina for them to oblige. Often the reality is that they are one paced & would be at 10f or 16f alike. Despite the emphasis on stamina, most races still need horses that have shown both the class & speed at shorter. These false favourites often give some great opportunities if you know where to look.

I will start to show some data that underpins my methods but these tables/systems/stats only guide me rather than to bet blind on any winning system the data churns out.

I tend to concentrate on all age open handicaps as I find the form is mainly in the book. The unknowns are from younger horses moving into handicap company or horses moving up to new distances. Both these “unknowns” I feel I have a good angle on, as I will demonstrate later. So I’m fairly comfortable that I know what to expect.

My modus operandi is to work through in forecast odds order, starting with the favourite. I do this as most of my bets come from opposing the favourite. I often like it when the favourite is either too exposed or is unlikely to appreciate the conditions. This gives me an angle in to the race & then I start to look for the horse to oppose it with.

In a future article I will use specific examples to highlight possible methods, but at this stage of the season it’s best to look at the theories underpinning the selection process.

As I said, a good way to prune a field quickly is to look for the doubtful stayers. I f a horse has been churning out average speed figures before trying a longer distance then I’m wary. A couple of ways to quickly judge whether the step up in distance will improve it is to look at previous increases in distance. What happened when it went from 8f to 10f? Does it improve on stiffer courses? If the answer is that it does improve in these circumstances then it’s a good estimate that it will be better at further. Another quick check on what it did as a 2 yr old can help. A horse that starts life in 7 or 8f races has already indicated that stamina may well be its forte. Another quick indicator is better performances with cut in the ground. Many see this as a ground issue only but it can show that it only ran better given the extra stamina test rather than a need for soft going. However if a horse doesn’t improve for that extra 2f, is as good at Ripon as it is at Pontefract & started in 5f races, then it’s a reasonable assumption that this step into staying races is a last chance rather than an opportunity!

If you have more time then looking at the breeding can be worthwhile. There is no need to be an expert (I’m not) but it’s often a good indicator to look at the sire & the dam sire’s average winning distance. This can be seen in brackets after a sire’s name. Again, next time I will delve into which sires can be relied upon to provide that stamina.

Other than the form in the book a good way to get an edge is to oppose widely held views…

One statement I keep hearing is that horses gain more stamina the older they get. What they are really saying is that they are losing their speed.

The following table is based on the last 6 years turf data, as all the stats you will see are.

This shows that absolutely contrary to this, the younger the horse, the more likely it is to win at longer distances. It shows all races of 13f or further in all open 3yo+ races

*I.V is a key indicator. If a horse had no advantage over the general *I.V is a key indicator. If a horse had no advantage over the general population this number would be 1. The 1.67 indicates that 3 yr olds are 1.67 times more likely to win than if no factors had been taken into account 

Compare this with the same data for 5 & 6f races

As you can see, the advantage that the younger horses hold at longer distances is quite striking. I never like stats for stats sake , so why is this?

I think its 2 fold. Firstly the Weight for Age (WFA) scale is in favour of 3 yr olds as it assumes that the further you go, the worse 3 yr olds will perform.

In an open race in early July over 2 miles a 3 yr old receives 19 lb’s!! over 5f it receives only 5 lb’s.

The 2^nd factor, especially in handicaps, is that many 3 yr olds & some older horses are trying the distance for the first time & are unexposed from a handicap mark perspective at this new distance. If this horse was bred to be better at further but has probably been underperforming at shorter distances, then it could have 10 lb’s in hand even before it gets the beneficial WFA allownaces.

For those with long memories would have seen this in action in the great staying handicap run at York – The Ebor. 3 yr olds won 11/20 runnings between 1981 & 2001 taking advantage of these 2 factors. Since then the quality has risen to such a degree that you need to be at the very top of the handicap just to get in, so very few try any more. The last winner was one of only 3 3yr olds in the race & they got 1^st & 2^nd

One other angle that people concentrate on is the 1^st time in a handicap, which is a favourite route for Sir Mark Prescott. However this isn’t as strong an angle as people think

The above shows the LTO statistics for 3 yr olds in open company. It is far better to have been tried at handicap company than be pitched in as an inexperienced horse. The public often take note when the maiden winner scoots in on its handicap debut but its not a great angle to start from.

Next article I will go into more detail on which sires do the best – Motivator & Kalanisi are 2 of the more high profile stars of this field. Which trainers specialize in this area – Other than Mark Johnstone & Sir Mark Prescott the likes of Haggas & Tregoning have fine records.

I’ll also highlight very useful stats on gender of the horse ( see system below), weight carried , odds & class.

I will leave you with a very simple system that makes good profits betting blind

3yr old Male horses in open handicaps of 13f or more. No bets of 20/1 or higher (not an area for huge longshots) & not coming from a maiden ( see above)

Over 6 years & 530 bets this very simple system brings in 23.4% Strike rate, 140 points profit & a ROI of 26.4%.

I use systems as a guide only but this is as good a starting point as I can think of!