Some of you may be
familiar with the “Zulu Principle”. This was a phrase coined by Jim Slater to
describe how good money could be made from specialising. His field of choice
was stock markets but the theory is just as relevant in horse racing. His
suggestion is that somebody could have a good knowledge of Africa, but if they
had read up on South Africa, they could be even more knowledgeable, if they had
read up on the Zulu tribe (as his wife did) they would be deemed an expert
& if they had actually lived there then they would be a renowned expert in
that field. THAT is why I have decided to specialise in long distance flat
races. Expertise through specialism.
Nowadays there is
a huge amount of racing & nobody can hope to be up to date with all the differing
facets of the racing calendar. I chose my area because historically I have
always done well in these races & as a result take more interest &
increase my knowledge.
Many a horse
racing enthusiast sees these races as full of slow boats who haven’t got the
speed or perceived class to be of interest. Sprints, mile races & group
races capture the imagination but this allows for anybody with an understanding
of this poor relation to take advantage.
I will go on to
delve into great detail on the effects of age, class, trainers, sires &
fitness later in future articles but I thought I’d first try & give an
overview of how I tackle these races & why stayers races suit my style of
betting.
Generally when
analyzing a race I try & match the horse with the conditions of the race.
This method precludes the need to keep complicated lists of horses to follow as the strength of the horse
is only ever known when paired with the circumstances of the race. Using
simplified logic, if a horse isn’t suited to the conditions then its more
likely to tell over 2 miles than it is 5f. If you didn’t like running when the
ground was muddy, would you prefer to do it over 100 yds or a mile? So when I’m
looking at a horse that has its perfect conditions then 2 miles is likelier to
bring out that advantage.
The 2nd
key aspect to these races is that there is many an expert who dismiss them as
unfashionable & therefore misunderstand the key factors.
2 differing
examples are; Fame & Glory in the 2011 Gold Cup run over 20f. Fame &
Glory was a proven group 1 horse who had shown distinct signs of needing much
further than the 12f races it had been competing at. Unfortunate to run into
Sea of Stars it was seen by many as an admission of failure to run it in the
stayers division. This despite the huge pool of talent the Ballydoyle outfit
could choose from. 5/2 was freely available on the day until a late deluge of
money forced it down to 11/8. It duly won with ease. It was the longest price
it had been for over 2 years despite the opposition being weaker ( Duncan was 2nd
fav). The impression that it was a retrograde step allowed the price to be too
high.
The other side of
the misunderstanding spectrum is many people that see a horse one paced at
10-12f think that all they need is a stronger test of stamina for them to
oblige. Often the reality is that they are one paced & would be at 10f or
16f alike. Despite the emphasis on stamina, most races still need horses that
have shown both the class & speed at shorter. These false favourites often
give some great opportunities if you know where to look.
I will start to
show some data that underpins my methods but these tables/systems/stats only
guide me rather than to bet blind on any winning system the data churns out.
I tend to
concentrate on all age open handicaps as I find the form is mainly in the book.
The unknowns are from younger horses moving into handicap company or horses
moving up to new distances. Both these “unknowns” I feel I have a good angle
on, as I will demonstrate later. So I’m fairly comfortable that I know what to
expect.
My modus operandi
is to work through in forecast odds order, starting with the favourite. I do
this as most of my bets come from opposing the favourite. I often like it when
the favourite is either too exposed or is unlikely to appreciate the
conditions. This gives me an angle in to the race & then I start to look
for the horse to oppose it with.
In a future
article I will use specific examples to highlight possible methods, but at this
stage of the season it’s best to look at the theories underpinning the
selection process.
As I said, a good
way to prune a field quickly is to look for the doubtful stayers. I f a horse
has been churning out average speed figures before trying a longer distance
then I’m wary. A couple of ways to quickly judge whether the step up in
distance will improve it is to look at previous increases in distance. What
happened when it went from 8f to 10f? Does it improve on stiffer courses? If
the answer is that it does improve in these circumstances then it’s a good
estimate that it will be better at further. Another quick check on what it did
as a 2 yr old can help. A horse that starts life in 7 or 8f races has already
indicated that stamina may well be its forte. Another quick indicator is better
performances with cut in the ground. Many see this as a ground issue only but
it can show that it only ran better given the extra stamina test rather than a
need for soft going. However if a horse doesn’t improve for that extra 2f, is as
good at Ripon as it is at Pontefract & started in 5f races, then it’s a
reasonable assumption that this step into staying races is a last chance rather
than an opportunity!
If you have more
time then looking at the breeding can be worthwhile. There is no need to be an
expert (I’m not) but it’s often a good indicator to look at the sire & the
dam sire’s average winning distance. This can be seen in brackets after a
sire’s name. Again, next time I will delve into which sires can be relied upon
to provide that stamina.
Other than the
form in the book a good way to get an edge is to oppose widely held views…
One statement I
keep hearing is that horses gain more stamina the older they get. What they are
really saying is that they are losing their speed.
The following
table is based on the last 6 years turf data, as all the stats you will see
are.
This shows that
absolutely contrary to this, the younger the horse, the more likely it is to
win at longer distances. It shows all races of 13f or further in all open 3yo+
races
*I.V is a key
indicator. If a horse had no advantage over the general
Compare this with
the same data for 5 & 6f races
As you can see, the
advantage that the younger horses hold at longer distances is quite striking. I
never like stats for stats sake , so why is this?
I think its 2
fold. Firstly the Weight for Age (WFA) scale is in favour of 3 yr olds as it
assumes that the further you go, the worse 3 yr olds will perform.
In an open race in
early July over 2 miles a 3 yr old receives 19 lb’s!! over 5f it receives only
5 lb’s.
The 2nd
factor, especially in handicaps, is that many 3 yr olds & some older horses
are trying the distance for the first time & are unexposed from a handicap
mark perspective at this new distance. If this horse was bred to be better at
further but has probably been underperforming at shorter distances, then it
could have 10 lb’s in hand even before it gets the beneficial WFA allownaces.
For those with
long memories would have seen this in action in the great staying handicap run
at York – The Ebor. 3 yr olds won 11/20 runnings between 1981 & 2001 taking
advantage of these 2 factors. Since then the quality has risen to such a degree
that you need to be at the very top of the handicap just to get in, so very few
try any more. The last winner was one of only 3 3yr olds in the race & they
got 1st & 2nd
One other angle
that people concentrate on is the 1st time in a handicap, which is a
favourite route for Sir Mark Prescott. However this isn’t as strong an angle as
people think
The above shows
the LTO statistics for 3 yr olds in open company. It is far better to have been
tried at handicap company than be pitched in as an inexperienced horse. The
public often take note when the maiden winner scoots in on its handicap debut
but its not a great angle to start from.
Next article I
will go into more detail on which sires do the best – Motivator & Kalanisi
are 2 of the more high profile stars of this field. Which trainers specialize
in this area – Other than Mark Johnstone & Sir Mark Prescott the likes of
Haggas & Tregoning have fine records.
I’ll also
highlight very useful stats on gender of the horse ( see system below), weight
carried , odds & class.
I will leave you with a very simple system that makes
good profits betting blind
3yr old Male
horses in open handicaps of 13f or more. No bets of 20/1 or higher (not an area
for huge longshots) & not coming from a maiden ( see above)
Over 6 years &
530 bets this very simple system brings in 23.4% Strike rate, 140 points profit
& a ROI of 26.4%.
I use systems as a
guide only but this is as good a starting point as I can think of!
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