As you may know I have run a service for almost 5 years now & one of the repeated dialogues I have with members is whether EW or win only is best & if you go EW, then when? Often I am with people who are used to dealing with tips around the 3/1 mark or even lower. My average bet over those 5 years is just over 10/1 & my long distance bets, which I specialize in, average 8/1. So I thought I’d compare EW v Win only.
Some people swear blind that win only is the way forward, but others prefer the safety net of EW betting. Who if any are right? I have looked at my own bets to find out how my own personal circumstances would have changed if I had gone down 1 path or another
When talking about my own bets, I have taken a random 2,000 bets, ignoring multiples & have ignored strength of recommended bet (usually ranges up to 5 pts). If it’s ew then its 1pt ew, if its win then 2pts win.
Backing win only (2pts win), over these 2,000 bets (average 9/1) would have produced a profit of 376pts. Taking the extreme example of betting all at EW (1pt ew) then this profit would have been only 112 points. This should be no surprise as any time a 5/2 shot wins a race with 1/5th the odds , instead of winning 5pts, you win 2.5 pts for the win part & 0.5pts for the place, so reducing profit by 2 points. If it placed you would have lost 2 pts on the win bet & 0.5 pts on the EW bet. A gain of only 1.5 pts.
What I then experimented with was cut-off points. Many go for the 5/1 & upwards so that was my first port of call.
Betting Ew when its over 5/1 would have returned 193 points. An improvement but still way back on the win only method.
Now, what if I used my average odds for these 2000 bets which was just over 9/1?
Betting EW at 9/1 or higher would have produced a profit of 392pts.
An improvement of 16 points on win only. In fact moving up a point at a time increases the profit on the EW betting each & every time, though 9/1 is the first time this would have bettered the win only betting. Is it a coincidence that this trigger point is my average bet? Probably, but it’s curious that only 2 other price points beat win only. 12/1 & upwards & 16/1 & upwards. The latter is the only price point that takes it over the 400 point mark.
I can only do the above analysis because I record all my bets but it does give food for thought, especially if I offer EW at lower than 9/1. Don’t forget that it also dissipates the big wins such as Bulwark which returned 132 points if win only but only 82.50 at EW .
The above assumes EW over 9/1 is the best way, but this ignores the nuances of EW betting. There can be great worth in betting in large field handicaps which offer ¼ the odds for 4 places
Taking an extreme example of a 16 runner field with all horses starting at 15/1.
This would give a 100% book , meaning if you placed a £1 on each horse to win you would break even.
If you placed a place bet on each runner at 15/4, then you would win on 4 bets & lose on 12, winning 3 pts. This may be why we see last minute non-runners in 16 strong handicap races!!
The above assumes that there is a 100% book, which doesn’t happen & also assuming you can pick which horses will place! It does show that an EW bet is very different depending on circumstances. Don’t forget that getting 4 placed , means only 1 wins so you lose on 3 of your winning bets , but it still shows the importance of seeing the place part as a key part of your bet.
The same bet in a 16 runner maiden race paying 1/5th the odds would have you losing 4 pts on the place part as the odds go down to 3/1 & you only get 3 places.
What have I learnt?
Well on a generic angle, its best to look at win only at under 9/1 & to pick my EW races but each person is different. One stat I haven’t added until now is what I actually did. ie. when I stated win only then 2 pts win & when EW then 1ptew , again ignoring my usual stakings, then the profit was 485 pts. This was way in excess of any rules based EW betting & showed the benefit of assessing the race.
All methods & betting patterns are different to others & I would really encourage everyone to record their bets & assess which is best for you & I’ll guarantee your P&L will improve for it.
As an end stat, I have long thought that the longer the odds, the bigger the bet should be.
This takes bravery & depends on the type of bets you pick but using the following parameters :-
Under 5/2 – 1pt win or 0.5pt ew, up to 6/1 - 2 pts, up to 10/1 – 3pts, up to 16/1 – 4pts, over 16/1 then a scary 5pts win or 2.5 pts ew
Using the above – the profit jumps to 1,028 with less points staked!!
See www.tippinglegends.com for more detail & follow me on twitter @jcatskill
Many thanks to www.flatstats.co.uk for providing much of my data
